Wow, I liked a few plays on the board today, but this is by far my favorite. We come off an unfortunately loss with the Suns +2 last night as they lead after three by 11 and fall by 3 points for a loss ATS for us.
Today we have the classic one team coming off an easy win (DAL) and Rockets coming off a loss. Rockets are one of the better teams off a loss for whatever reason. This year they are 9-1 overall after a loss and they are 4-0 ATS after a loss and playing as a dog in their next game. The Dog is actually 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Rockets are also 3-1 ATS on 1 day rest in their 2nd game of a road trip this year.
With that said the Rockets are dogs because they got beat up twice against the Mavericks already this year and that was from shooting 65 and 55% from the field. Rockets I don't believe will give up that kind of shooting here if they do I'll be very surprised. Other than the FG% which of course is the most important thing the Rockets played better getting to the FT line more and out rebounding them by 8 in the series. In both games Houston got up early and lost the game so they should remember that coming in here. Dallas will want to play this one and Jason Terry, last years 6th man of the year should have a lot of say as he was the reason for those impressive shooting %'s in the first two match ups as he has shot 17-19 from the field in two games. Well guess what Terry is off one of his bad games going 2-12 from the field.. Normally when this happens shooters don't bounce right back.
Dallas has not played well at home ATS as of late and even worse following an ATS win. Actually Dallas is 1-4 ATS following an ATS win and 0-7 in their last 7 home games all as favorites. I liked Dallas a lot the other night in their easy 100-86 win, but do not like them here against a hungry Rockets team. Nowtizki is off a great performance of 35 points and 11 rebounds, but had more turnovers than assists. Dallas is 0-9 ATS after a win in which Dirk has double rebounds but more turnovers than assists. In terms of Dallas poor ATS record after an ATS win they are actually shooting just 42.2% from the field in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Which is the main reason why the Rockets could not contend the first two contests.
Rockets are 10-3 ATS after allowing 100+ in previous game and are 38-15 in their last 53 after an ATS loss including 42-20 ATS last 62 following a straight up loss. Again I mention their resiliency to come back after a tough loss. Believe it or not but the Rockets are 20-1-1 ATS off a loss when the opponent attempted at least ten three pointers and made at least half of them. That happened in their last game to Denver, and also earlier this season to the Kings in a loss when they went on 1 day rest again to face the Lakers +9 and they won outright by 10 points. This is another great situation for this team to get an outright win as a dog and that's why we take them there as a bonus. Enjoy your Friday!
